Images by GettyImages; Illustration by Hunter Newton/Bankrate
The Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates outright. But its decisions in setting interest rates do play a role in the percentages lenders offer would-be homeowners. And even if the Fed keeps things unchanged, mortgage rates can still fluctuate.
So, overall, how do the Fed’s monetary-policy moves affect mortgages — and influence the cost of borrowing to buy that dream home? Here’s how it all works.
What the Federal Reserve does
The U.S. Federal Reserve sets borrowing costs for shorter-term loans by changing its federal funds rate. This rate dictates how much banks pay each other in interest to borrow funds from their reserves, kept at the Fed on an overnight basis.
In 2022 and 2023, the Fed increased this key interest rate to help calm inflation — hikes that made it more costly for Americans to borrow money or take out credit.
Fixed-rate mortgages — the most popular type of home loan — don’t mirror the federal funds rate, however; they track the 10-year Treasury yield (more on that below). The fed funds rate does affect short-term loans, such as credit card rates and the rates on new home equity loans and lines of credit.
The Fed also buys and sells debt securities in the financial marketplace. This helps support the flow of credit, which tends to have an overarching impact on mortgage rates.
The Fed’s latest meeting
At its meeting on Dec. 17-18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to decrease its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. The move brings the new target rate down to 4.25-4.5 percent. Add this current cut to the previous ones of the last two meetings (by half-a-percentage point in September and 0.25 percentage point cut in November), and the Fed has effectively reduced rates by a full percentage point since the onset of autumn.
However, while the federal funds rate has dropped, mortgage rates haven’t responded in kind. In fact, “mortgage rates have gone up – not down – since the Fed began cutting interest rates in September,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate. “With expectations for fewer rate cuts in 2025, long-term bond yields have renewed their move higher, bringing mortgage rates back near 7 percent.”
In the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for the federal funds rate is 3.9 percent for 2025 — 0.50 percentage points lower than 2024, but 0.50 percentage points higher than September’s projection.“The economy remains strong, and the job market is solid, thus there are still many reasons for the Fed to be cautious about cutting interest rates,” Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, said in a statement.
It’s also important to remember that the Fed’s economic predictions are largely based on the economy staying stable. But with a new presidential administration taking office in January, there’s uncertainty in the air — especially over the effect of proposals to implement trade tariffs and mass deportations of immigrants who have entered the country illegally. These “potential policies being discussed by the incoming administration could apply inflationary pressure and keep the Fed on pause, or encourage the Fed to slow the pace of rate cuts,” Hepp noted. However, “despite the prospect of deportations and tariffs, we won’t know the full impact until such measures are implemented.”
Factors that influence mortgage rates
Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When that goes up or down, fixed-rate mortgage rates follow suit.
The fixed mortgage rate isn’t exactly the same as the 10-year yield, however; there’s a gap between the two.
Typically, the gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate spans 1.5 to 2 percentage points. For much of 2023 and 2024, that margin grew to 3 percentage points, making mortgages more expensive.
Mortgage rates also move due to:
- Inflation: Generally, when inflation picks up, so do fixed interest rates.
- Supply and demand: When mortgage lenders have too much business, they raise rates to decrease demand. When business is light, they tend to cut rates to attract more customers.
- The secondary mortgage market, where investors buy mortgage-backed securities: Most lenders bundle the mortgages they underwrite and sell them in the secondary marketplace to investors. When investor demand is high, mortgage rates trend a little lower. When investors aren’t buying, rates might rise to attract them.
How the Fed affects adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs)
While fixed-rate mortgages dominate the U.S. residential financing scene, some Americans prefer adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), which have variable interest rates that reset annually or semi-annually. The Fed’s moves can affect them more directly.
More specifically, the rates on ARMs are often tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, or SOFR. Because the Fed’s rate decisions serve as a basis for savings instruments, raising or lowering the fed funds rate can push the SOFR up or down. ARM rates, in turn, go up or down as well when the rate resets.
All this means that, if the fed funds rate goes up, your ARM rate will increase as well at the next adjustment.
What to consider if you’re getting a mortgage
Regardless of current Federal Reserve policy, your best bets for the lowest possible mortgage rate are to maintain solid credit, keep your debt low, make as much of a down payment as you can and shop around for loan offers.
When comparing rates, take a look at the APR, not just the interest rate — some lenders might advertise low interest rates, but offset them with high fees. You’ll know your true all-in cost, including these fees, by understanding the APR.
Bottom line on how the Fed affects mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve doesn’t determine fixed mortgage rates. But its policy decisions weave into the broader economic picture that informs and influences your borrowing costs. When setting fixed rates, mortgage lenders take the Fed’s moves into account, as well as factors like the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation and investor appetite. And the Fed’s changes to its benchmark borrowing rates will impact the indexes that influence ARM rates as well.
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